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Nomological network of PMF constructs (C1–C7)

Scope​

This nomological network makes explicit the expected relationships between PMF constructs and their observable signals, generating falsifiable predictions to support construct validity and guide the interpretation of evidence — not metrics, thresholds, rituals, or governance.

System map​

Within C1: (C2 + C5) → C3 → C4 → C6, with C7 moderating the links.

Reading: arrows = conditional trends (probabilistic), not determinism.

Mental shortcut: C1 locks scope. C2+C5 make it feasible. C3 proves repeatable success. C4 cleans out lock-in. C6 shows choice with currency. C7 reminds us that everything is contingent.

Additional real pathways (do not replace C3):​

  • C5 → C4 (preference for delivery/risk: reliability, service, responsiveness, implementation, security) may occur even when the outcome is a commodity.
  • Exogenous C4 (risk/compliance/reputation signaling, “safe choice”) can increase decision-maker preference without user success.

Reading rule: these pathways may increase C4/C6 in the short term, but they do not replace repeatable C3 in the relevant unit.

Interpretation rules​

  • Scope (C1) governs everything: relationships are valid only for (ICP + whole offer + alternatives/conditions perceived by the customer).
  • Lags exist: some links only appear within the “model window” (repurchase/renewal/expansion/reactivation); causal order ≠ observable order.
  • C4 is a mediator and purifier: switching costs can inflate C6; therefore C4 is the “success → choice” bridge and the anti-lock-in filter.
  • Identifiability of C4: C4 is better identified when switching costs are low/neutralized (avoids endogeneity/contamination).
  • Survivorship bias: late observations of C4/C6 may be truncated (only “survivors” reach high adoption), distorting inference.
  • Multi-actor (B2B): C3/C4/C6 must be defined at the same agent/decision-unit (DMU) level — avoid C3(user) with C4/C6(buyer).

Minimum loops (endogenous dynamics)​

  • L1 (reputation/WOM): C6 → C2 can be positive or negative (amplifies or erodes demand/cohorts).
  • L2 (endogenous lock-in): (C5, C6) → switching costs → (C4, C6) (adoption/integrations/processes create switching costs and distort C6).
  • L3 (load degradation): C6↑ → load↑ → C5↓ → C3↓ (quality erosion when demand exceeds capacity).

Tension signatures (keeps the network falsifiable)​

  • High C3 + low C4: customer succeeds but does not prefer (commodity) or stays due to lock-in.
  • High C4 + low C3(user): exogenous decision-maker preference (risk/compliance/reputation) → commercial false positive.
  • High C5 + high C4 + medium/low C3: preference for delivery/risk (C5→C4) in a commodity market; do not confuse with full PMF by value mechanism.
  • High C6 + low C4: behavior sustained by friction/coercion; C6 does not reveal voluntary preference.
  • High C6 + falling C2: negative L1 (reputation/WOM eroding demand).
  • Fast-rising C2 + falling C3: positive L1 + active L3 (demand accelerates faster than executability; “suffering from success”).

What “there is PMF” means in the network​

Within a C1, there is PMF when C2 and C5 sustain C3, and when C3 (consistent and relevant outcome) sustains C4, which then manifests in C6, read with awareness of lags, loops (L1–L3), switching costs, multi-actor dynamics, and exogenous pathways that do not replace C3.